Israel’s Coming Civil War… ?
Very interesting article about the possability of a civil war in Israel over the dismantling of the settlements in the Gaza Strip. The author, Uri Avnery, seems quite sure about it:
Everybody in Israel is talking about the Next War. The most popular TV channel is running a whole series about it.
Not another war with the Arabs. Not the nuclear threat from Iran. Not the ongoing bloody confrontation with the Palestinians.
The talk is about the coming civil war.
Only a few months ago, that would have sounded preposterous. Now, suddenly, is has become a possibility, and a very real one. Not another blown-up media sensation. Not yet another of Sharon’s political manipulations. Not just a new blackmail attempt by the settlers. But the real thing on the ground.
They talk about it at cabinet meetings and in the Knesset, on TV talk shows, in editorials and the news pages. The chief-of-staff has publicly warned that the army may fall apart. One of the ministers says that the very existence of the State of Israel is in danger. Another minister prophesies a bloodbath like the Spanish Civil War.
Quietly and not so quietly, the Shin Bet is taking precautions. The prison service has been ordered to prepare facilities for mass detentions. The army leadership is planning the call-up of 10,000 reserve soldiers and starting to think about the steps they must take in the case of . . .
Its a facinating, and worrisome idea. Especially the suggestion that Israeli Democracy itself might be at stake. I doubt things will go far enough to overthrow the government, but I worry the confrontation over the settlements might get violent. Whether it goes to the point of a civil war or not… probably not, but it seems like a scary possability. Here is a response from an Israeli:
There will be no civil war. Many are willing to resist the disengagement, but as Siro said only a tiny minority believes the Land to be more important than the People and the State.
You should also be careful from making the mistake that the only opponents of the disengagement are settlers. While the most fanatic core of the opposition lives in the settlements, there are tens and even hundreds of thousands of people who are not settlers but who will, given enough motivation, join their cause physically.
The success of the disengagement depends on two things.
The first factor is the earliest mistake. Whoever makes a mistake first will have to fight a losing battle. It pretty much boils down to who the first dead Jew will be, a soldier or one of the pro-settlers.Here the settlers have a disadvantage. If a soldier dies first, chaos ensues and as was mentioned earlier most of the opposition will stop meaningful resistance. If a settler dies first, the State will be at a disadvantage but still far from a defeat.
The second factor is good old manpower(and logistics). I believe that the current plans talk about 6000 soldiers and policemen who will participate in the evacuation of every settlement(with more protecting them in outer layers), one by one(not enough people to evacuate them all). In the past the settlers showed a lot of creativity and resourcefullness in slowing down IDF forces, gathering information about the IDF’s next target, and most importantly bringing large amounts of people to the scene.
All this was done during surprise evacuations of tiny outposts(less than 5 trailers). This time they have months to prepare and a much more important cause.
Yesterday the papers were talking about the settlers establishing their own General Staff, which will resemble the one of the IDF, with an IDF Brigadier General(reserves) as the Chief of Staff and IDF Colonels responsible for main tasks such as logistics, information gathering, etc. According to that paper, there are 100,000 people who already agreed to be “soldiers”.
He seems sure that there won’t be a civil war, yet says the settlers (and supporters of the settlers) are organizing themselves in preparation and have 100,000 ’soldiers’ signed up. That is an incredibly scary thought. There is no questions that there are extremists out there who will shoot at any Israeli troops that come for them. The question of course is where the rest of the people stand? Would those 100,000 fight?
If they did, damn that would seriously screw up a lot of things.
This problem underlies the greatest barriers to middle-east peace, not getting the moderate Israelis and Palestinians to agree, but getting the extremist settlers on the one hand, and the extremists in Hamas and the like on the other hand to agree with the moderates. If the settlers and Hamas can be neutralized somehow, then I think lots will be possible. Of course government support for the settlers and for the terrorists makes things worse and worse. I think Sharon’s disengagement plan is the way to go, I just hope he has the balls to follow through and nothing bad happens.
February 23rd, 2005 at 11:30 pm
If I wasn’t reading extra careful, I could almost come away with the impression you are equating the terrorists and the settlers.
February 24th, 2005 at 12:46 am
The people who you call ’settlers’ are not actually settlers. They are residents living on a land that belongs to them. The Israeli military has no right to come over there and kick them off their land. You should not be equating the terrorists with the settlers. The terrorist are out there killing law abiding citizens. They make no distinction between man, child or baby. They are ruthless murderers. Their goal is to obliterate the Israeli people. The settlers on the other hand are living out a peaceful existence. However if the Israeli military plans to disrupt that peaceful existence and kick them off their own land, they would be justified in fighting back. The terrorist need to stop attacking people, and the Israeli government must allow the settlers to live peacefully on their own land. Peace will only occur if the Israeli’s and the Palestinians can learn to peacefully coexist. Awarding the terrorists by giving them land will not solve any problems. On the contrary, it will only embolden the terrorists to commit more attacks. They cannot be appeased. It did not work with Hitler and it certainly won’t work now.
February 24th, 2005 at 3:15 am
Interesting. I don’t know if much would come of this what with everything else going on in that region, but a fascinating read nonetheless.
February 24th, 2005 at 9:44 am
The land does not belong to them. They stole the land, that is the whole idea behind the settlements. The terrorists want to steal the land of the Israelis and the settlers want to steal the land of the Palestinians. Both are extremists and neither should get support from their government.
Oren, another solution to “uprooting peaceful settlers” would to simply cut them off and stop protecting them. Leave them to face the terrorists on their own. Of course that’s not politically feasible. Remember, peacefully coexisting does not equal pushing all the Palestinians into Jordan.
February 24th, 2005 at 11:34 am
Who is advocating pushing all the Palestinians into Jordan? It is the Palestinian terrorists who want to push the Israelis into the ocean. Alex, you are saying that the Israeli settlers are living on “stolen” land? If this is the case, then Texas is “stolen” land. The Israelis and Egypt fought a war, started by the Arabs, which the Israelis won fair and square. As is the case after every war, there is a redrawing of national boundaries, and the victors acquire some of the former territory of the losers. The Palestinians and Arabs need to accept the fact they lost the war. Palestinians and Arabs are allowed to and do live in Israel. Why shouldn’t Jews, Israeli or otherwise, be permitted to live in “Palestinian” territory? The anti-settler sentiment proves that many Palestinians are anti-Semitic. They don’t want any Jews living within the Palestinian Authority. That being said, I’m afraid that the removal of the settlements is the only way that peace can be achieved. I wonder if the Palestinians would sign a peace agreement with Israel if Israel barred all Palestinians and Arabs from living in Israel?
February 24th, 2005 at 2:40 pm
Dave has got you nailed on this one. Pretty much covers it all.
February 24th, 2005 at 3:03 pm
“Who is advocating pushing all the Palestinians into Jordan?”
If you read the link to the original article I quoted, you’ll see that that is the intent behind the settlers. To expand Israel’s borders to their biblical limit. Far beyond even what we’d consider the current Israel/Palestine area.
“Alex, you are saying that the Israeli settlers are living on “stolen” land? If this is the case, then Texas is “stolen” land.”
Actually Texas democratically decided to join the United States. That is different than pure conquest.
“The Israelis and Egypt fought a war, started by the Arabs, which the Israelis won fair and square. As is the case after every war, there is a redrawing of national boundaries, and the victors acquire some of the former territory of the losers. The Palestinians and Arabs need to accept the fact they lost the war.”
Then Israelis need to accept the fact that people don’t much like being conquered and from time to time may choose to blow up buses and night clubs in response. Might does not make right.
“Palestinians and Arabs are allowed to and do live in Israel. Why shouldn’t Jews, Israeli or otherwise, be permitted to live in “Palestinian” territory? The anti-settler sentiment proves that many Palestinians are anti-Semitic. They don’t want any Jews living within the Palestinian Authority.”
Well in many cases the Israeli government supported and funded the settlers in the first place. But honestly, I wouldn’t care if Israel just withdrew totally from Palestinian territory and leave the settlers to live as Jewish Palestinian citizens. I doubt anyone else would accept that though.
Why does anyone who dares look at this issue in a balanced light get attacked? Like how Dean was made out to be some terrible anti-semite because he suggested we be even-handed in the middle east, oh that terrible Nazi! How dare he suggest something so foul!
February 24th, 2005 at 4:36 pm
You generalize the views of a minority of settlers to be the driving zeal of them all.
As for accepting bus bombings as the results of winning a series of wars that Israel did not begin, fine, as long as the Palestinians and the rest of the world accept the full might of the IDF in return. No more holding back. At least that’s what your logic would entail.